The Observer Capital

Investing from India in the world’s best businesses.

🇮🇳 INDIA · 🌍 GLOBAL · ⇄ TRANSMISSION

SCANS

The rules are published. The names are withheld.

Every screen this desk runs is written out below in full — the fields, the thresholds, the universe. What you cannot see yet is which companies clear them. That is a registration constraint, not an editorial one, and it lifts on the day it lifts.

NO RUN PUBLISHED

No scan has been published to this site yet. The engines behind these rules run daily inside the desk; nothing has been written out here, and an empty page is the honest way to say that rather than showing a stale cohort.

The rules, in full

COILED

3-year book-value CAGR minus 3-year price CAGR ≥ 6 points a year, sustained ≥ 2 years, with the book passing four reality gates (accrual quality, ROE above cost of equity, no chronic dilution, real dividend capacity).

Value accrues continuously; price discovers episodically.

QUIET INFLECTION

Incremental margin above reported margin for two consecutive prints, with the price flat or down over six months.

Operating leverage precedes rerating, and the chart is usually last to know.

PAPER PROFITS

Price up materially over six months while the Sloan accrual ratio flags and cash conversion lags reported earnings.

The market is paying up for earnings the cash flow does not confirm.

HARVEST AHEAD

Capex/revenue falling below its own five-year path while cash conversion holds.

Free-cash inflections are systematically under-anticipated, because screens read trailing free cash.

When a scan does publish, it will carry the count and the universe it searched — “217 of 8,874 clear the bar” — because a hit count without its denominator is not a finding.